{
  "metadata": {
    "title": "Can AI finance a universal dividend?",
    "status": "Executed illustrative deterministic scenarios",
    "verified_date": "2026-10-27",
    "horizon": "One annual accounting period after the assumed deployment; not a calendar-year forecast or cumulative total",
    "units": "Percentage points of baseline annual gross domestic product (GDP); baseline GDP=100",
    "prices": "Constant baseline purchasing-power units; no currency or exchange-rate forecast",
    "population": "All residents, including children, share the transfer equally. Population held fixed. No age or citizenship forecast.",
    "parameter_status": "All numeric model inputs are author-selected teaching assumptions, not empirical estimates or IMF forecasts.",
    "model_scope": "Partial fiscal and income accounting, not a general-equilibrium, employment, inflation, poverty or welfare model.",
    "reproducibility": "python3 model.py; Python standard library only; deterministic; no random seed needed"
  },
  "scenarios": [
    {
      "id": "inclusive",
      "title": "Inclusive gains",
      "inputs": {
        "adoption": 0.6,
        "productivity_uplift": 0.12,
        "disruption_output_loss": 0.5,
        "worker_share_new_value": 0.6,
        "wage_to_profit_shift": 1.0,
        "labor_tax_yield": 0.2,
        "capital_tax_yield": 0.25,
        "transition_spending": 0.4,
        "admin_share": 0.05,
        "eligible_population_share": 1.0,
        "promised_transfer": 0.0
      },
      "results": {
        "gross_productivity_gain": 7.199999999999999,
        "disruption_output_loss": 0.5,
        "net_output_gain": 6.699999999999999,
        "wage_income_change": 3.0199999999999996,
        "capital_income_change": 3.6799999999999997,
        "labor_tax_change": 0.604,
        "capital_tax_change": 0.9199999999999999,
        "incremental_tax_revenue": 1.524,
        "transition_spending": 0.4,
        "dividend_admin_cost": 0.05620000000000001,
        "funded_dividend": 1.0678,
        "other_funding_needed": 0,
        "annual_per_person_pct_baseline_gdp_per_capita": 1.0678,
        "promised_transfer": 0.0,
        "promise_admin_cost": 0.0,
        "promise_funding_gap": 0
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "concentrated",
      "title": "Concentrated returns",
      "inputs": {
        "adoption": 0.6,
        "productivity_uplift": 0.12,
        "disruption_output_loss": 0.5,
        "worker_share_new_value": 0.15,
        "wage_to_profit_shift": 3.0,
        "labor_tax_yield": 0.2,
        "capital_tax_yield": 0.05,
        "transition_spending": 0.6,
        "admin_share": 0.05,
        "eligible_population_share": 1.0,
        "promised_transfer": 0.0
      },
      "results": {
        "gross_productivity_gain": 7.199999999999999,
        "disruption_output_loss": 0.5,
        "net_output_gain": 6.699999999999999,
        "wage_income_change": -1.995,
        "capital_income_change": 8.695,
        "labor_tax_change": -0.399,
        "capital_tax_change": 0.43475,
        "incremental_tax_revenue": 0.035750000000000004,
        "transition_spending": 0.6,
        "dividend_admin_cost": 0.0,
        "funded_dividend": 0.0,
        "other_funding_needed": 0.5642499999999999,
        "annual_per_person_pct_baseline_gdp_per_capita": 0.0,
        "promised_transfer": 0.0,
        "promise_admin_cost": 0.0,
        "promise_funding_gap": 0
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "weak",
      "title": "Weak gains and disruption",
      "inputs": {
        "adoption": 0.25,
        "productivity_uplift": 0.04,
        "disruption_output_loss": 1.5,
        "worker_share_new_value": 0.4,
        "wage_to_profit_shift": 2.0,
        "labor_tax_yield": 0.2,
        "capital_tax_yield": 0.15,
        "transition_spending": 0.6,
        "admin_share": 0.05,
        "eligible_population_share": 1.0,
        "promised_transfer": 0.0
      },
      "results": {
        "gross_productivity_gain": 1.0,
        "disruption_output_loss": 1.5,
        "net_output_gain": -0.5,
        "wage_income_change": -2.2,
        "capital_income_change": 1.7,
        "labor_tax_change": -0.44000000000000006,
        "capital_tax_change": 0.255,
        "incremental_tax_revenue": -0.18500000000000005,
        "transition_spending": 0.6,
        "dividend_admin_cost": 0.0,
        "funded_dividend": 0.0,
        "other_funding_needed": 0.785,
        "annual_per_person_pct_baseline_gdp_per_capita": 0.0,
        "promised_transfer": 0.0,
        "promise_admin_cost": 0.0,
        "promise_funding_gap": 0
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "unfunded",
      "title": "Promise before funding",
      "inputs": {
        "adoption": 0.6,
        "productivity_uplift": 0.12,
        "disruption_output_loss": 0.5,
        "worker_share_new_value": 0.6,
        "wage_to_profit_shift": 1.0,
        "labor_tax_yield": 0.2,
        "capital_tax_yield": 0.25,
        "transition_spending": 0.4,
        "admin_share": 0.05,
        "eligible_population_share": 1.0,
        "promised_transfer": 4.0
      },
      "results": {
        "gross_productivity_gain": 7.199999999999999,
        "disruption_output_loss": 0.5,
        "net_output_gain": 6.699999999999999,
        "wage_income_change": 3.0199999999999996,
        "capital_income_change": 3.6799999999999997,
        "labor_tax_change": 0.604,
        "capital_tax_change": 0.9199999999999999,
        "incremental_tax_revenue": 1.524,
        "transition_spending": 0.4,
        "dividend_admin_cost": 0.05620000000000001,
        "funded_dividend": 1.0678,
        "other_funding_needed": 0,
        "annual_per_person_pct_baseline_gdp_per_capita": 1.0678,
        "promised_transfer": 4.0,
        "promise_admin_cost": 0.21052631578947345,
        "promise_funding_gap": 3.086526315789474
      }
    }
  ]
}